Global markets focus on US President Trump's "tariff letters"

While concerns about the possible effects of the protectionist policies implemented by the US administration on the economy and trade continue, the employment report, which reveals the healthy course of the labor market in the country, increased risk appetite in the markets.

Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 147,000 in June, above expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2 percent to 4.1 percent. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the country also fell to 233,000 in the week ending June 28, below market expectations.

In the US, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) services sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.8 percent in June, in line with market expectations. S&P Global’s services sector PMI data fell 0.8 points compared to the previous month to 52.9 in June. Factory orders in the country increased more than expected by 8.2 percent in May.

The country's foreign trade deficit increased by 18.7 percent in May to $71.5 billion, while exports decreased by 4 percent and imports by 0.1 percent.

Analysts noted that after the strong employment report, estimates in money markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates three times in the remaining part of the year weakened, and stated that there is a 72 percent probability that the Bank will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in September.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes that if the Fed does not cut policy rates in July, a larger rate cut could be made in September.

On the other hand, President Trump is expected to start sending "tariff letters" to countries today. Making statements yesterday as he left the capital Washington to attend an event in the state of Iowa, Trump noted that they will probably send letters to various countries starting tomorrow (today) stating how much they will pay to trade with the United States.

Trump stated that the bill passed by Congress and called "A Big Beautiful Bill" will turn the country into a "rocket ship" and announced that he will sign the bill on Friday at 17:00 local time. Stating that they will achieve record levels of growth, Trump said, "My first term was very, very successful. We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. I think we will surpass that this term."

However, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spokesperson Julie Kozack stated that the IMF maintains its stance that the US should reduce its budget deficit over time, and said that the "tax cut" bill being discussed in Congress runs counter to the recommendation to reduce the debt.

Following these developments and the employment report that exceeded expectations, opinions that the Fed will not ease as much as expected increased, and the US 10-year bond interest rate rose to 4.35 percent yesterday.

The price of an ounce of gold fell 0.9 percent yesterday to $3,326, and is currently trading at $3,340, up 0.4 percent. The dollar index also rose 0.3 percent yesterday to 97, and is down 0.1 percent on the new day to 96.9.

Oil prices fell ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude oil is down 0.5 percent at $68.2 a barrel.

On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.83 percent, the Nasdaq index by 1.02 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.77 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a negative trend.

The New York Stock Exchange, which closed early yesterday due to the Independence Day holiday in the USA, will be closed for trading today.

While European stock markets were dominated by buying yesterday, investors are focused on the speech to be given by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde today.

On the other hand, European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that they are ready to make an agreement with the US on tariffs. Leyen emphasized that they want a negotiated solution, but also stated that they are preparing for the possibility that a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached.

Von der Leyen, who explained that EU countries were also consulting on a counterbalance list against the US, said, "We will defend Europe's interests. All the necessary tools for this are on the table."

Investors continue to follow geopolitical developments closely alongside economic data. US President Donald Trump stated in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had made "no progress" on the Ukraine peace process.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in England rose 0.55 percent, the DAX 40 in Germany rose 0.61 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose 0.40 percent and the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.21 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day mixed.

Asian markets showed a mixed trend, with President Trump likely to start sending out letters today about tariffs imposed on countries, and household spending in Japan coming in above expectations, putting pressure on regional stock markets.

The increase in household spending in May exceeded expectations by 4.7 percent on a monthly basis and 4.6 percent on an annual basis, exceeding estimates. Expectations for household spending were for a monthly increase of 0.4 percent and an annual increase of 1.3 percent.

On the other hand, China's Ministry of Commerce reported that Beijing is working closely with the United States to maintain the agreements reached in June in trade talks.

With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 0.1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea fell 1.6 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.4 percent.

Following a buying-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index gained 0.39 percent of its value and closed the day at 10,228.39 points. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 12,111.00 points in yesterday evening's session, 0.06 percent above the normal session close.

USD/TL, which closed at 39.8230 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, is being traded at 39.8440 with a 0.1 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that today, an intensive data agenda will be followed, primarily the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Price Developments Report and the real effective exchange rate in Turkey, and the statements of ECB President Lagarde, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone and factory orders in Germany.

Analysts stated that they are closely following customs tariffs and geopolitical developments, and noted that from a technical perspective, the 10,300 and 10,400 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, while 10,100 and 10,000 points are support.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

09.00 Germany, May factory orders

10.30 Eurozone, ECB President Lagarde's speech

12.00 Eurozone, May producer price index

14.30 Türkiye, June Real Effective Exchange Rate

18.00 Türkiye, TCMB price developments report

Markets will be closed in the US